News sources report that Donald Trump’s chances of succeeding in the 2024 presidential election have gone down by 13 percentage points in the previous month. Currently, Trump vs Harris has an alleged tie on Polymarket, a forecasting market platform, with Trump vs Harris having the same probability of winning the White House.
Memecoins Reflect Trump’s Declining Chances
The dip in Trump’s odds is also reflected in the performance of Trump-themed memecoins, which have dropped notably over the same period. These coins are deemed synonymous with Trump’s popularity and have undergone significant losses, showing shaky confidence among supporters.
Trump vs Harris: A Shift in the Race
Ex-President Donald Trump embarked upon the election cycle with an overpowering lead over the Democrats. However, that dominance has sublimed with President Joe Biden backing down and Kamala Harris coming in as the Democratic candidate. In the past month, Trump’s odds of coming back to the White House have dropped by 13 percentage points, while Harris’ odds have jumped by 34 percentage points. Harris started strong as Biden’s probable successor and has now become a worthy opponent to Trump.
News sources suggest that Trump’s downturn can be attributed to the consequences of the first Presidential debate against Biden, where he kept a high of 72% in forecasting markets. The debate was a difficult time for the Democrats, with Biden himself admitting that he “screwed up.” This led to a short-lived surge for Trump. However, as Harris evolved into the obvious Democratic frontrunner, Trump’s dominance began to slump.
Polymarket and Polling Align on Trump vs Harris
Polymarket’s chances now line closely with recent polling data, showing a notable shift in the 2024 election landscape, as reported. A CBS News poll executed between July 30 and August 2 denoted Harris with a 1 percentage point lead over Trump. Given the poll’s 2.1 percentage point margin of error, this is more or less a tie, showing the cut-throat race. Around the same time, polling aggregator 538 also reportedly declared the race a statistical tie, further stressing the competitive nature of the election. In the following days, Harris got a minor up in the polls, cementing her position as a worthy contender, making it a Trump vs Harris.
Trump-Themed PoliFi Tokens See a Slump
The drop in Trump’s odds reflects polling and prediction markets along with the performance of Trump-themed PoliFi tokens. These tokens are connected to Trump’s political assets and have undergone a more sizeable downturn than the polls indicate. MAGA, the first Trump token, has dropped by almost 38% in the past month, according to CoinGecko data. Similarly, the Solana-based token Tremp has fallen by 40% over the same period.
Conclusion
To conclude, the past month has undergone a reportedly remarkable shift in the 2024 presidential race, with Trump’s dominance vanishing in thin air and Kamala Harris surfacing as a strong opponent. This shift is evident in prediction markets and polling along with the downturn that Trump-themed digital assets are going through presently.
It shows that the audience, at large, is not confident enough of Trump reclaiming the White House in 2024. The collective output of these factors shows a fast-changing political arena where public sentiment and financial markets are moving in line with the evolving dynamics of the race. As Harris takes the lead, it’s becoming massively clear that the 2024 election could be far more competitive than estimated, with both candidates now allegedly facing a heavy battle to secure the seat. The dropping value of Trump-themed tokens, once a strong signal of his support audience, further highlights the volatility that wraps around the elections of 2024. Learn about the role of crypto in the nearing US elections of Trump vs Harris with TNYR.
