A recent report by CryptoQuant highlights that while Bitcoin demand has stabilized in recent months, stronger growth is required for a potential price increase in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin Demand Stabilizes, But Is It Enough?
According to the report, demand for Bitcoin showed consistent increases in September, but analysts suggest that this growth alone may not be enough to drive the price upward. The report calculates Bitcoin’s visible demand as the difference between the daily Bitcoin block subsidy and the daily change in the amount of BTC that has remained unchanged for a year or more.
Since July, this demand has fluctuated, with monthly net changes ranging from a 23,000 BTC loss to a 69,000 BTC gain. September saw less volatility and steady demand growth, but this growth wasn’t as significant as earlier in the year. Analysts note that in April, when Bitcoin prices neared $70,000, demand surged by as much as 496,000 BTC.
Historical Patterns and ETF Impact
The report also draws parallels between Bitcoin holders’ behavior in early 2024 and patterns seen in the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles. Earlier this year, long-term holders sold to new buyers, accelerating demand. However, this trend slowed over the summer.
Analysts from Turkish NY Radio speculate that if historical trends repeat, we could see a continued rise in demand, potentially leading to a short-term supply squeeze. This could result in higher Bitcoin prices.
A promising factor in the demand landscape is the role of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. In September, ETFs shifted from net selling to net buying, with 7,000 Bitcoin purchased on September 30th—the highest daily volume since July. The report suggests that spot Bitcoin ETFs may buy around 9,000 BTC daily in the first quarter of 2024, contributing to price increases.
