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The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has raised concerns that former President Donald Trump‘s recent surge in the betting odds on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket may have been artificially inflated.
According to the report, Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election in November have seen a sharp increase in recent weeks. As of Thursday, Polymarket users predicted Trump’s chances of victory at 62%, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris‘s 38%. This marks a significant shift from earlier in October when the two candidates were reportedly neck and neck.
The WSJ suggests that this boost could be the result of manipulation by four Polymarket accounts, collectively placing bets worth nearly $30 million on Trump’s victory. Arkham Intelligence CEO Miguel Morel analyzed the data and indicated that the four accounts were likely controlled by the same entity.
Potential Manipulation or High-Risk Betting Strategy?
While some believe that a high-stakes bettor might simply be betting heavily on Trump’s chances for a large payout, others suspect it could be part of a coordinated influence campaign to boost Trump’s momentum on social media.
An insider revealed that Polymarket is currently investigating its presidential election market activities and has hired external experts to assist with the inquiry.
Adam Cochran, managing partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, noted that $30 million would be enough to significantly alter the betting odds on Polymarket and suggested that for a wealthy individual or group looking to influence the election, this expenditure would not be excessive. Cochran described the move as one of the most effective forms of political advertising that money could buy.
At present, Polymarket continues to show Trump’s chances of winning the election at 60%, maintaining a significant lead over Harris.
For more updates on this developing story, stay tuned to Turkish NY Radio.
