Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise, predicts that Bitcoin could reach $92,000 if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. On October 22, Park looked at Bitcoin’s price and compared it with Trump’s betting odds on Polymarket, a decentralized platform. Using a calculation method similar to merger arbitrage, he suggested that a Trump win could cause Bitcoin’s value to rise sharply.
Crypto Community Eyes 2024 Election
Jeff Park’s analysis suggests a strong chance of Bitcoin prices rising after the 2024 election if Donald Trump wins. Other experts agree that a Trump victory could have a big impact on the crypto market.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is drawing a lot of attention from the crypto community, especially because of Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance. Trump has promised to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world” and to remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office. He plans to create a more friendly regulatory environment for digital assets.
Pro-Crypto Proposals from Trump
Trump’s proposals include replacing SEC leadership with regulators who support crypto, backing altcoin ETFs, and setting clear rules to encourage innovation. He is positioning himself as a champion of the crypto industry, in contrast to Kamala Harris’s more cautious approach.
Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman believes Trump could push Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 if he wins, reflecting a common view among some analysts that Trump’s policies could have a big impact on the crypto market.
However, not everyone agrees. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban has doubts, warning that while a Trump win might initially boost crypto prices, inflation from his economic plans could cause the rally to be short-lived.
Prediction Markets Favor Trump
Prediction markets like Polymarket and PredictIt show Donald Trump with a strong chance of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Trump currently has a 64% chance on Polymarket and 59% on PredictIt, while Vice President Kamala Harris is behind with 36% and 43% on the same platforms.
It’s worth noting that Polymarket, being a cryptocurrency-based platform, doesn’t allow U.S. residents to participate. This means that its main users are from outside the U.S., which could skew the results toward a more crypto-friendly audience.
A political action committee (PAC) backing Donald Trump, called Trump 47, has raised around $7.5 million in cryptocurrency donations. Contributions came in Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, and stablecoins like Tether and USDC.
Trump’s Evolving Stance on Cryptocurrency
Trump is the first presidential candidate to accept crypto donations, which signals a shift in his attitude toward digital assets. His campaign has been actively connecting with the crypto community, showing how candidates are increasingly tapping into this group’s financial support.
Among the notable donors are the Winklevoss twins, who have endorsed Trump, calling him “pro-bitcoin, pro-crypto, and pro-business.” Their support highlights the strong ties between Trump’s campaign and key figures in the crypto world.
A report from Public Citizen shows that almost half of corporate donations in this election cycle are coming from the crypto industry. This is a huge jump from previous elections, with major contributions from companies like Coinbase and Ripple.
Trump’s views on cryptocurrency have changed over time. He once called Bitcoin a “scam” and worried it might challenge the U.S. dollar. But now, he has embraced the industry, hosting crypto-related events and even launching his cryptocurrency platform, World Liberty Financial.
Conclusion
As prediction markets show a positive outlook for Trump, the effects on the cryptocurrency market could be major. The election’s outcome could shape not just Bitcoin’s future but also the rules for digital assets in the United States. The changing relationship between cryptocurrency and politics is likely to remain in the spotlight, making the 2024 election an important event for the crypto industry.
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