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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects a Bitcoin rally in Q4 2024. The firm’s Chief Investment Officer at the Asset Manager expects the existing macroeconomic factors surrounding Federal Reserve cuts and the upcoming US presidential elections to dissipate by October and November.
Matt Hougan boldly predicted that the price of Bitcoin could exceed $80,000 by 2024 if current conditions held. The Bitwise CIO based his forecast on the interplay of political, economic, and technological issues. Hougan believes the November US elections, favourable market conditions, and a growing interest in altcoins are likely to propel BTC toward new heights.
The Attitude Surrounding US Elections
According to Hougan, a Bitcoin rally in Q4 would have been likely if a particular set of conditions had been met. First, the Democratic Party candidate, Donald Trump, will win the upcoming election. Cryptocurrencies have been a significant subject during the 2024 US presidential race, with most people assuming a Trump win could be good for the industry while a Harris win would be disastrous.
Speculation remains high following the Democratic Party’s contrasting views on the crypto industry. While Senator Elizabeth Warren leads the “Anti-crypto army,” Representative Ritchie Torres has shown deep support for digital assets. While Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily need politicians to thrive, Hougan believes the right attitude surrounding the digital asset could lead to a Bitcoin breakout.
Federal Reserve Cuts
The Bitwise CIO opines that people are attracted to Bitcoin because of its simplicity, especially because it’s becoming clear that no one can really trust the government with their money. This idea led to the birth of an alternative currency in 2009, and its potential success is evidenced by its institutional adoption, especially in the form of Bitcoin ETFs by BlackRock and other issuers.
Crypto’s recent rally despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 points, notwithstanding a growing US economy, shows its significance in the financial market. Bitcoin has also surged at a time when China recently splurged on a 2 Trillion Yuan economic stimulus. Matt Hougan’s prediction point to a potential Bitcoin breakout by the end of 2024, as the market seems hungry for more.
No Serious Surprises
The last thing that Hougan believes will lead to an $80,000 rally is the fact that there haven’t been any big surprises, hacks, or massive lawsuits recently. The past few quarters have been relatively silent and devoid of surprises for which the crypto industry has been renowned. There’s also a feeling that the release of BTC that was previously locked up from the failed MT. Gox crypto exchange could have helped to stabilize the market. The Bitwise CIO believes that we could expect a Bitcoin breakout if the current circumstances held and there weren’t any shocks or surprises.
Hougan’s prediction also highlighted BTC’s outstanding performance in Q1 2024, when the asset’s price surged to reach an all-time high of $73,000. He attributed the remarkable price rally to a heightened demand that was most likely tied to the introduction of the Spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that offered investors a new way to buy and invest in Bitcoin. Moreover, the Bitwise CIO averred that Spot BTC ETFs played a pivotal role in enhancing investor confidence and increasing institutional adoption. The rise in demand at the beginning of an election year pushed Bitcoin to higher levels, as well as establishing a firm base for its growth during the rest of the year.
Conclusion
Matt Hougan’s prediction shows that Bitcoin could possibly surpass the all-time high of $73,000 and possibly exceed the $80,000 mark by December 2024. The upcoming presidential election is one key factor supporting his prediction, so it would be interesting to see whether a Republican or Democratic win would actually benefit the crypto sector.
While Hougan’s forecast expects a Trump win to become favourable and initiate a Bitcoin breakout, it’s becoming evident that political factors could play a role in the expansion of blockchain technology and create an environment that is friendly to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While reaching the $80,000 target could look like an uphill task, it’s safe to say that it’s not completely out of reach.
