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This week, the crypto market faces two pivotal events: the U.S. presidential election and the anticipated Fed interest rate decision. Both developments are expected to heavily impact Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, with potential market-shaking consequences. The intense race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could bring a new wave of volatility to the market, just as BTC’s recent attempt to surpass its all-time high failed, triggering a wave of caution across altcoin markets.
Double Trouble: Election and Fed Decision Stir Market Uncertainty
With the U.S. election on November 5 and the FOMC meeting on November 7, the market is bracing for a high-stakes week. Experts expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut, which could influence investor behavior. As election results are anticipated around November 6, these two events combined could drive widespread fluctuations in the crypto market.
Ahead of these announcements, many investors have been selling assets to prepare for potential liquidity pressures, although the general sentiment remains optimistic. The Kobeissi Letter recently pointed out that, historically, the S&P 500 tends to decline if the ruling party, in this case the Democrats, appears likely to lose. With the S&P 500 up 40% over the past year, markets may be pricing in a Republican victory. However, should there be a change in power, both traditional and crypto markets could experience heightened volatility.
Market Performance Trends During Election Years
Historically, election years have seen positive performance across U.S. markets. Since 1928, 19 of the 23 election years yielded positive returns for the S&P 500, with an average gain of 11.3%. This suggests that, despite uncertainties, markets tend to fare well during election years.
Following major events like elections and interest rate decisions, Bitcoin often enters an upward trend. Analysts speculate that BTC may rally to new heights, potentially reaching $100,000 or even $200,000 by year’s end, should it follow a similar pattern to previous bull cycles. A parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s value could present significant opportunities, especially if the Fed’s rate cut supports broader market sentiment.
As election results and Fed decisions loom, Turkish NY Radio will continue to provide timely updates on how these events unfold and their impact on the crypto market.
