Officials concerned with the future of cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum’s ether (ETH) under a potential Kamala Harris presidency are left hanging in the balance, ETF sector experts opine. Applications for ETFs tracking the smaller size of cryptocurrencies, such as Ripple’s XRP and Solana (SOL), also await clarity from the outcome of the next presidential election, experts predict. If Harris gains the chair, these will not be approved, according to the analysts. But if Donald Trump-the former U.S. President-wins, then the possibility of seeing light for these applications will be more on the brighter side.
Recent Developments in Crypto ETFs
For months now, many companies have attempted to launch U.S. ETFs tracking cryptocurrencies other than the Bitcoin and ether products that have already been unveiled. Recent approvals for spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs were a long time coming and were celebrated within the crypto community since years of lobbying and, in some cases, court action in the United States-as seen by Grayscale’s lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission-paid off with billions of dollars flowing into these new financial instruments.
Since the news, applications for the new crypto ETFs have skyrocketed. In fact, an application for Ripple’s XRP tracking fund is in process and also a native cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain-SOL. According to Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, the chances of being approved are slim if Kamala Harris becomes the President of the United States. “It won’t happen if Kamala Harris wins, regardless of the issuer,” he said, suggesting he believes that the existing regulatory environment will continue under her presidency.
The Role of Major Asset Management Firms
There has been speculation that, being a major asset management firm, BlackRock, for instance, could influence favorably the stand of the SEC toward cryptocurrency ETFs. When BlackRock entered the race to list Bitcoin and ether ETFs, many in the industry believed that this could quite significantly enhance the chances of approval; however, the actual impact of BlackRock’s participation remains yet unknown.
Analysts agree that a Trump victory would expand the range of possibilities for broader crypto ETFs. “there’s a decent chance” even more crypto ETFs could be approved if Trump wins, even if BlackRock does not team up with rival companies like Bitwise or VanEck, which have also filed applications to broaden the scope of the cryptos inside the ETF beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Similarly, ETF Store president Nate Geraci shares the same view, proffering that it is “highly unlikely” that a Harris-led administration would ever clear more spot crypto ETFs in the near term. For Geraci, the Biden administration has had a “combative” attitude towards regulations of crypto, and given the influential role Kamala Harris serves within that administration, it is fair to expect that little might change should she become president.
Current Political Landscape
The prospects of Trump winning the election seem to be bright, given that current prediction markets, such as Polymarket, give him a 62.4% chance of winning-the highest figure in recent months. His campaign has begun to gather much support from the crypto community, which is welcoming his optimistic attitude toward the industry. All these steps, from attending central Bitcoin conferences and advertising decentralized finance brands to visiting Bitcoin bars, indicate strategic engagement with the cryptocurrency industry on Trump’s part.
On this side, though, Kamala Harris hasn’t been much outspoken about issues impacting the crypto market. Though she has recently announced plans to launch a framework of rules over digital assets targeting Black men who, statistics indicate, have much more money in crypto, the depth of her plan or end commitment to the sector remains unclear, adding another degree of complexity to look forward to the landscape of US crypto ETFs.
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