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Activities surrounding the Mt. Gox payout in recent weeks could be among a combination of factors leading to an overbought Bitcoin, culminating in the digital asset’s price dropping below $64K. The price decline also affected the broader crypto market, as Bitcoin’s price lost 3% of its value in 24 hours and at least $1000 within an hour alone.
After several years of waiting, cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox emptied four of its wallets in a much-anticipated payout after receiving $370K worth of Bitcoin from Kraken exchange. Experts believe the transfers of assets to crypto exchanges to facilitate repayment of creditors impacted the supply-demand trends, leading to an overbought Bitcoin due to oversupply.
Seeds Planted in June
According to Arkham Intelligence, Mt. Gox exchange has 44,905 Bitcoin worth over $2.82 billion at the current BTC price. The fear of an oversupply caused by the Mt. Gox payout has materialized as the recipients went on to cash out. The cost of Bitcoin was $600 when cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox collapsed in 2014 compared to today’s price range of between $63,000 and $65,000. The Surge in sell orders across the crypto exchange landscape could also have overshadowed the demand for US BTC-Spot ETF demand.
According to 10x Research, the fall in the price of Bitcoin replicates a typical bull market due to overbought conditions. 10X Research founder Markus Thielen opines that his firm warned of an overbought Bitcoin in the short term a few days ago. He stated that it was only apparent to expect bearish short-term reversal signals, creating a pull-back situation that could last several days.
Thielen believes the seeds of the bearish trend leading to Bitcoin below $64k were planted in June when the United States ISM manufacturing data was released. This suggests the ongoing decline was consistent with a pattern typically characterized by at least a 10% price sell-off. According to Thielen, the release of the September report expected this week will prove that manufacturing activities declined during the last month of the third quarter.
Blamed a Bug within the Framework
Launched in 2009 by Jed McCaleb, an American software hacker, Mt. Gox (the short form of “Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange) started as a site where people could trade cards in a game called “Magic: The Gathering.” The site soon transformed into the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange. However, Mt. Gox collapsed in February 2014 following a series of heists where over 950,000 Bitcoins disappeared. The exchange’s directors blamed the disappearance of such a large amount of customer funds on a bug within the exchange’s framework.
At least 140,000 from the missing Bitcoin stash was recovered after Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy protection, meaning that close to $9 billion worth of Bitcoin would be returned to owners. At the time of the exchange’s collapse, Bitcoin was retailing at $600 compared to $64,000 today, an increase of close to 10,000%. In July 2024, Data from Arkham Intelligence showed the exchange had moved billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin from its cryptocurrency wallets in preparation for the upcoming Mt. Gox payout. Arkham investment suggested that over 47,000 Bitcoin had been moved from the Mt. Gox wallet.
Facing Solid Headwinds
The Arkham Investment report revealed that the exchange sent at least $84.9 million to BitBank. This Japan-based cryptocurrency exchange was listed among the platforms that would be used to facilitate the Mt. Gox payout. The report indicated that the exchange sent a further $63.6 million to an undisclosed counterparty, which they believe was also a listed repayments exchange.
While it’s still unclear how the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange fell almost overnight a decade ago, it remains ironic that the collapse happened when Bitcoin began gaining popularity among the broader public. An overbought Bitcoin has created an unprecedented down note to one of September’s biggest price rallies, thereby undercutting the notion that September has always been a bullish month for cryptocurrencies. What started a Strong September seems to have ended with BTC facing solid headwinds, and investors can only hope that the tide will turn during Q4 2024 to bring better returns.
