Theories surrounding Trump’s election odds during the forthcoming US elections have increased as the scales recently dipped before gaining slightly in his favor. Commentators on politics and betting markets are coming up with different theories on what is behind the unsteady predictions.
Questions abound on the betting activities of an anonymous crypto whale that is said to have placed a $46 million bet on the probability of former President Donald Trump winning the forthcoming elections. According to commentators, no one can easily tell what the aims of the said crypto whale are, and few other people have shown a willingness to float their theories regarding the wagers. Data on Polymarket indicates that a person or entity is behind four accounts betting big on Trump election odds.
Four Mysterious Accounts
Betting on Trump’s election odds has risen significantly as the race between the former US President and current VP Kamala Harris gets tighter, with the Republican candidate getting the highest ratings since President Joe Biden exited the race in favour of Vice President Harris. Although it’s still unclear who owns four accounts on the crypto betting platform Polymarket, experts predict that accounts Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie are most likely related, considering they have kept showing similar characteristics.
The crypto betting platform Polymarket has given Trump a 66% chance of winning against Harris, being the first time the figure rose above the 65% probability given on July 21, when Biden threw the towel on the race. Apparently, competitor sites have also tilted heavily towards Trump, with PredictIt and Kalshi placing the Trump election odds at 57% and 60%, respectively. The ongoing betting activity surrounding the crypto, as mentioned earlier, has raised more questions than answers, with many wondering what the aim of placing an eight-figure bet on Trump could be and some suggesting it could be something more than just the money involved.
Attempt to Influence the Outcome
According to political oddsmaker for BetOnline and betting market expert Paul Krishnamurty, people or entities placing money on big Trump election odds could be attempting to influence the outcome by creating publicity around the former president. By placing huge bets, Krishnamurty opines that the impression it gives about his odds of winning could work for Trump.
While it wasn’t possible to tell whether the bets were genuine, Krishnamurty stated that it was “equally possible to believe the bets were placed with the intention to change the narrative in Trump’s favor.” Search analytics tool Glimpse showed that Google search interest for “Donald Trump” surged by 24% over the past week, peaking last Sunday, when crypto betting Platform Polymarket revealed information about the crypto whale’s bet. On the other hand, there are the likes of LunarCrush CEO Joe Vezzani, who believes the accounts betting on Polymarket were related to genuine people or entities who think Trump will actually win the November 5 elections.
Make Money off Short-Term Moves
According to Vezzani and other like-minded commentators, betting markets could be more believable than polls, considering that people who place real money on wagers will most likely respond faster to the slightest changes and developments in the race. Vezzani observed that a surge in favor of Trump’s election odds could also be related to the election drawing closer. He said he thought the ways people made “a decision when there’s money on the line is different than the way maybe they would decide if there wasn’t.”
Another school of thought is that the individual or entity behind the crypto betting Polymarket accounts could be making a deliberate move to shift their bets with the goal of actually making money. Krishnamurty speculated that the increased betting on the high possibility of Trump election odds may have increased the value of the positions held by the four, considering that Polymarket has allowed users to close their positions just before the election. The account holders could be planning to make money off short-term moves where multiple accounts enable traders to sell out positions fast to take advantage of the smallest market moves.
Conclusion
While betting on Trump’s election odds has become a major topic of conversation in recent days, the rise of new entities like crypto betting platform Polymarket has changed the trajectory. Influential people like Elon Musk have stated that such sites are more accurate than regular polls due to the money involved.
